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Labour

Policies
Three leaflets have been received from Labour.  The leaflet concentrates more on the record of Labour in power.  Policies mentioned are mainly local - bring jobs to Dartford, more affordable homes, tackle crime and anti-social behaviour, more trains, and "defend Labour's hefty crossing discount".  It is claimed Conservative policies will undermine the economic recovery, "hit our core services" and increase unemployment.

Analysis of claims

Claim 1 - Health Service is better than ever
There are many indications that this is true.  In the last 10 years the number of NHS doctors has increased from 95,000 to 141,000 and the number of nurses from 330,000 to 417,000.  However the number of managers has also risen by 20,000 in the same period (source - NHS Information Centre).  Waiting times have clearly fallen, but it is difficult to be precise on this, it appears that in 1997/8 the waiting list for Dartford & Gravesham area was over 4,000 and median time about 3-5 months, whereas in 2008 the list was 1,600 with a median waiting time of 4-5 weeks (Source - Dept of Health Waiting time Stats 1997/8 and 2008/9).

Claim 2 - Pensioners are better off under Labour
The basic single person state pension has risen from £62.45 in 1997 to £97.65 in 2010 (source - Scottish Life), this is a rise of 56%, and during the same time the Retail Price Index has risen 39% (Source - Office of National Statistics).  However we need to consider the means tested benefits for poorer pensioners, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found there is less risk of pensioner poverty since 1997, but poor families in general would have been better off in 1979 (JRF - Comparing taxes and benefits in 1979, 1997 and 2008).  When Chancellor, Gordon Brown introduced free TV licences for the over 75s (Source 1999 Pre Budget Report).  Free bus passes for the over 60s were introduced in 2005, but a recent budget change will mean that the age will rise to 65 (Source - BBC News 28.3.09).

Claim 3 - Crime is down
This is probably correct but changes in the way the official statistics are gathered makes it hard to be certain.  The annual sample by the British Crime Survey has followed much the same methodology since 1997.  It asks a large sample of people whether they have been a victim of crime and then extrapolates the results nationally, and therefore has the virtue of including crimes not reported to the police.  Their findings are that crime peaked at 19 million in 1995 and has been falling ever since to just under 11 million in 2005/6.  Violent crime has fallen from 4.3 million in 1995 to 2.4 million in 2005/6 (Source - British Crime Survey, Measuring Crime for 25 Years, 2007).  However the report does make clear that crimes reported to the police have not fallen, which the authors say is due to changes in the way crimes are recorded.  In 2008/9 the total crimes had fallen slightly further to 10.7 million.

Claim 4 - "Labour's hefty crossing discount"
While people in the borough of Dartford can apply to join a discount scheme, the claim omits to state that the government also changed the law to prevent the crossing being free and Hartley does not benefit from it because we are not in Dartford borough.  (see Conservative Claim 2 below).

Claim 5 - only Labour can defeat the Conservatives in Dartford
Probably true, but (unintentionally!) a good argument for Proportional Representation, so people can vote for the party they support rather than against the one they do not.

Conservative

So far the editor's house has received 7 Conservative leaflets - hope they're watching the election expenses limit!  It is apparently a tactic that the two main parties use in marginal constituencies is to concentrate campaigning in the areas most favourable to them (it is called "Getting out the vote").  The notes below are taken from all 3 leaflets.

Policies
Like any opposition party, they extol the benefits of change.  They promise to increase spending on the NHS, but the leaflet is unclear whether this is spending in real terms.  On schools they will have teacher run schools accountable to parents.  They want to make tax changes to favour families, freeze council tax for 2 years and abolish the proposed increase in National Insurance, but are vague on how they can reduce the UK's budget deficit at the same time.

Locally Mr Johnson promises to campaign against "being consumed by London", and to "protect" Dartford's schools.  He wants fewer cautions for shoplifting and a presumption of prison for "knife carrying thugs".  He also wants more infrastructure for new developments and more trains.

Analysis of claims

Claim 1 - Unemployment has risen faster in Dartford than elsewhere in Kent
As with all statistics it depends when you measure from.  It is true that taking the last year only the claimant count of 2,217 has risen faster in Dartford than for any other authority in Kent.  However it is still lower than 1997 (2,312) and much lower than 1993 (3,995) when Mr Johnson's party was last in power (source - Nomis).  

Claim 2 - Government failed to scrap Dartford Crossing Tolls.
It is true that under the terms of the Dartford - Thurrock Crossing Act 1988, the tolls should have come to an end in 2002.  However the leaflet does not promise to scrap the tolls, and the cost of such a pledge would be £40 million annually.  (Source - Wikipedia)

Claim 3 - Dartford has the lowest council tax rise in Kent this year
Not according to the official publication by Parliament, 6 other authorities in Kent have a lower percentage rise, and 3 have a lower rise in cash terms.  Dartford ranks 5th lowest out of the 12 Kent authorities for overall council tax.  (source - House of Commons Library Briefing Paper)

Claim 4 - Dartford's MP voted to close 5 local post offices
Presumably a reference to the debate of 19 March 2008, where he did vote against a Conservative motion to suspend the closures for a reassessment.  Again the leaflet does not promise to restore any of them.

Claim 5 - He would not claim for a second home as MP
True - but an easy claim to make because after the election no MP will be able to claim for a second home! (source - BBC News)

UKIP
 

Policies
They want referendums on all major issues, and to stop spending £45 million a day on the European Union and to stop "mass immigration".  As for young people they urge engagement by more investment in education and facilities, and less in benefits.  They oppose the privatisation of the Dartford Crossing.  He promises only to claim expenses for what he needs to do the job and not employ any family members.

Analysis of claims
There is only one claim - that the European Union costs the UK £45 million per day.  It is uncertain where this figure came from, but appears to be close to the gross payments projected to be made to the EU in 2010/11 which amount to £15.3 billion.  This equates to £42 million per day.  However after the rebate and public sector receipts are deducted, the net contribution is only £6.4 billion or £18 million per day. (Source: HM Treasury "European Community Finances 2009", page 25)

Independent

Probably the most detailed leaflet has come from the independent candidate, Stephane Tindame.  As an independent he points out that he can put his constituency rather than party first.  He praises Dartford for *its... tolerance and being an outstanding borough".  He mentions his involvement in the local community and in the campaign to protect marine wildlife.  He says "that every individual has the right to live in prosperity, and that the answer to prosperity lies in the strength and cohesion of local communities.."

Policies
He pledges to scrap the tolls on the crossing and to oppose privatisation, he would campaign for free hospital parking and investment in jobs in Dartford, while protecting the green belt.  He would create a community emergency fund and donate 10% of his parliamentary salary to the community.  He is in favour of community projects and volunteering projects to help the disadvantaged.  He is against the National Insurance increase, and spending by local authorities on consultants.

Analysis of claims

1. The "Angel of the South" horse will cost taxpayers £50 million
Not according to the planning application submitted to Gravesham Council.  The project will be entirely privately funded (page 32) and the project has been costed by the developers at £2 million, the same cost as the Angel of the North (page 31).  (Source: Gravesham Council Planning report)

2. Dartford lost out on £3million regeneration package
Can't find the source of this claim.

Liberal Democrat (James Willis)

Two Libdem leaflets including the only one to be (half!) printed in the constituency.  His leaflets concentrate on his policies for Dartford and the UK.  Locally he wants more school places to be for local children, and to oppose the sale of the Dartford Crossing.  Nationally the Liberals want to abolish income tax on the first £10,000 of income, paid by cutting tax loopholes.  They offer smaller class sizes and the abolition of university tuition fees.  They also urge more investment in public transport, and energy efficiency.

Analysis of claims

1. "Our NHS at risk with the Conservatives" - He quotes a number of headlines suggesting the Conservatives' commitment to the NHS may not be sincere.  All of them are actual newspaper stories which list a number of Conservative MPs and health pressure groups who want the NHS to be privatised, but this is at variance to the party's manifesto.  The House of Commons Library has figures for health spending since 1950.  In the 1980s expenditure in real terms grew slightly, but fell as a share of national wealth.  It rose more quickly in the 1990s under John Major, but has increased even more under Labour.  Since 1997 spending has doubled in real terms.  The Conservatives have a manifesto pledge to spend more in real terms, but this could be a lot less than recent year increases which average a 6% increase in real terms.

2.  "Only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories in Dartford" - This refers to a poll of 100 shoppers in Dartford town centre by the Dartford Times, which had the result Con 41%, Lib 32%, Lab 28%.  However local newspaper polls are not usually conducted like the opinion poll companies, who try to get a balanced cross-section of the populace.  A Liberal win is possible (their vote went from 8% to 58% in the exceptional Bermondsey by-electiohttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3927280.ecen of 1983), but it is much more likely that Labour will outpoll them.  In the 2009 European Elections, fought at the low point in Labour's fortunes, they still got twice the vote of the Liberals.

3. Conservatives will cut tax for millionaires - A reference to the Conservative pledge to raise the threshold for inheritance tax to £1 million.  Treasury figures say 3,000 millionaires will benefit (source: Channel 4 fact checker)

4. Labour abolished 10p tax rate - In the 2007 budget Labour reduced the basic rate of tax to 20p but abolished the 10p starting band, meaning many low paid people would have been worse off.  They later put this right at a cost of £2.7 bn.  (Source - Times)

English Democrats (Gary Rogers)

His leaflet has many right wing policies including "ending mass immigration", a referendum to leave the EU, less public spending in Scotland and Wales, "army style punishments" for criminals, reducing regulations and "getting rid of political correctness".  He wants an English parliament.  Locally he urges free parking in the town,